English says exports will drive the recovery

Sources: Ross Louthean www.nzresources.com

That, he said, will be quite different to recoveries traditionally seen in New Zealand.

"This recovery will be patchy at times - due to the uncertain global environment and the need for businesses and households to pay down large stocks of debt."

"In this credit-constrained world, the recovery will need to come first from the earnings side of the economy such as exports," English said in a speech to the New Zealand Council for Infrastructure Development.

"All of this shows that tackling the economy's imbalances will not be a short-term task. It's not just a matter of shrugging off the global recession. The challenges we face started years earlier."

"Turning that around will require a relentless, long-term focus and commitment," English said.

This reality was reflected in stable rather than growing results for domestic industries like housing and retail, and indicators such as business confidence and the sharemarket.

Recent debate about the Government's goal of catching Australian incomes by 2025 had attracted some comment - much of it characterised by a total lack of context about the recent economic performances of the two countries.

He said in the three years to 2008, NZ's economic growth was unbalanced and sluggish. In early 2008, New Zealand went into a recession that Australia simply didn't have.

"This meant the Australian economy grew by about 11.5% in the four years to March 2010, while our economy grew just 2%."

"So the Government inherited a situation that makes the challenging target of catching Australia even more difficult. Let me stress that the Government remains committed to this target - but it's a 2025 target, not a 2011 or 2014 target."

Over the past 30 years, there had been many two year periods when NZ performed better than Australia, as dairy and other commodity prices fluctuated. But overall, the trend has been clearly in Australia's favour.

"On the commodity front, Australia clearly has the edge at the moment," English said.

"Put in simple terms, Australia's mineral industry makes up nearly 70% of its exports, while dairy makes up 20% of our exports."

"Furthermore, Australian commodity prices roughly doubled in the five years to July 2010, while NZ's commodity prices increased by only half as much."

"As a result, Australia's minerals boom is likely to mean it will perform better than NZ in the near term, but it is the long-term trend we are determined to turn around."

"The only way we can permanently lift New Zealand's economic growth is through considered and consistent reform and change, year after year."

More broadly, the Government has built its economic plan around six policy drivers. They include:

• Strengthening the tax system.
• Better, smarter public services.
• Reforming regulation.
• Education and skills.
• Business innovation and trade.
• Investment in productive infrastructure.

"In the past 18 months, we have been extremely busy rolling out policies within this plan, and you will see more announcements in the coming months," English said.
 

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